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美银美林料港楼价会由6月高位回调一成升领展(0823.HK)评级至“买入”
格隆汇 08-15 13:18
美银美林发表报告,基于香港经济前景转弱,决定下调对香港地产股每股资产净值预测平均4.5%,同时平均调低对香港地产股目标价15%,对恒地(0012.HK) 投资评级,由“ 买入 ”下调至“ 中性 ”,将目标价由51.6港元降至40港元,因料港府未来将会大量推出公营房屋供应,而恒地持有不少农地,存在转换封顶的风险。
该行对领展(0823.HK) 评级,由“ 中性 ”上调至“ 买入 ”,将目标价由98港元降至96港元,料其业务可抵抗经济衰退,兼且潜在回购可支持每基金单位表现。
美银美林表示,假设香港问题于未来数月解决,料香港住宅楼价会从6月顶峰回落10%,即2019年回落2%,但料2020年楼价将持平。该行亦估计,本港特首在10月施政报告会积极增加土地供应,认为农地及棕地可能被要求转换成公营房屋土地。
该行指,香港地产股近月股价已累跌17%,股价较每股资产净值折让54%、收租股股价较每股资产净值折让49%,对比过去八年历史折让均值各41%及37%;与2008年最难艰情境比较,仍有潜在下行空间30%。
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