惠譽料下半年內地鋼鐵生產大減利潤率續受壓
評級機構惠譽發表報告,指中國鋼鐵生產於今年上半年創新高後,下半年料大幅倒退。據國統局數據,粗鋼及鋼產品上半年生產同比各升9.9%及11.4%,至分別4.92億噸及5.87億噸。不過,鋼產品出口按年跌2.6%至約3,500萬噸,反映生產增長主要用於國內需求。
惠譽表示,留意到建築用鋼材支撐生產增長,鋼筋及鋼絲繩生產同比各升19.3%及14.6%;而主要用於汽車工業的冷壓類產品,僅升2.6%。這與房地產板塊固定資產投資(FAI)10.9%的升幅一致。
不過報告稱,料有三大因素壓抑下半年鋼鐵生產,即住宅建築放慢、環保舉措帶來生產限制,以及鋼鐵商為保護利潤而進行市場主導的減產。
惠譽預期,內地下半年住宅建築放慢,特別是三、四線城市,料拖累房地產板塊FAI全年增幅。不過,料部分被基建FAI加快所抵銷。而內地空氣質素目標亦致河北多個主要鋼鐵生產城市,在7至8月期間執行或宣布限產,幅度最高達50%。另上半年鋼商毛利率大降,主要由於鐵礦石價格大升。據中國鋼鐵工業協會數據,鋼鐵業上半年收入同比增11%,惟純利則跌20%。
報告預期,本地需求疲弱及貿易衝突加劇,在今年餘下時間將導致鋼鐵銷售均價下滑及壓抑利潤率,特別是對長鋼材生產商而言,主要用於建築業。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.