美团点评-W(3690.HK)吃喝玩乐全一条龙构建O2O生态闭环予以“买入”评级
机构：东吴证券
评级：买入
目标价：80港元
投资要点：
外卖业务：双寡头格局定，提升“效率”为增长关键。19Q1美团外卖和饿了么两者合计市占率为98%，未来“运营效率”将成为提升平台货币化能力将成为角力重心，Q1为餐饮外卖淡季，美团实现收入107亿（+yoy52%）,增长主要依赖于货币化率提升至14.2%，未来预计整体外卖业务货币化率将继续提升：
1）成本端：随着订单密度提升，外卖日均交易笔数由17年的1120万单提升至18年的1750万单；未来配送网络效率提升，骑手成本有望下降，从而自营配送业务实现盈利；
2）提点率：外卖业务有助于商户降低每单成本，同时可增加商户获客量，未来平台对于商户的议价能力将提升；
3）广告营销助力外卖业务：外卖同质化竞争严重，商户未来对于广告需求将逐步增加，高毛利营销业务有望带动外卖业务盈利增强。
到店，酒店及旅游：在线营销服务增长显著，用户粘性逐步养成。美团19Q1到店及酒旅业务收入44.92亿元（+yoy43.2%）；GMV为464亿（+yoy15%），收入增速显著高于交易额增速，“营销类”业务对收入的贡献效果逐步提升。预计未来整体到店团购业务将逐步下滑，而高毛利的在线营销业务比重将提升：
1）商户端：流量红利消失，商户获客难度增加，广告投放需求将提升；
2）用户端：大众点评及美团在整体O2O生活服务行业市占率提升，用户数量和粘性均保持行业领先，将成为商户广告投放首选。酒店业务：在发展初期，美团酒店用户以年轻散客为主，未来随着年轻用户成长，消费能力和对于酒旅的消费需求都将提高，叠加其已经养成的使用粘性，有助于美团由低线向高星酒店渗透。
创新业务：出行业务亏损有望降低，ToB业务尚处于培育期。凭借着“大众点评”和“美团”在O2O生活服务市场的高市占率和高用户粘性，美团顺理成章可推进B端的商户衍生服务，包括餐饮管理系统（RMS），快驴进货（供应链），在线商户营销等。出行方面：19年起，随着摩拜单车大规模折旧完成，网约车采用“聚合模式”，小象生鲜门店数量下降，预计新业务亏损将大幅收窄，整体货币化能力将持续提升。
盈利预测与投资评级：采用PS分部估值，预计美团2019年合理估值为4085亿元，约4609亿港币，对应股价为79.6港币。同时，考虑EV/EBITDA估值,外卖业务成长性较好，未来盈利能力提升空间较大；到店及酒旅业务毛利较高，盈利能力可持续，预计公司整体19-21年EBITDA为-32/27/123.6亿，予以21年30xEV/EBITDA,对应市值为3708亿元，约4184亿港币，对应股价约72港币。综合而言，予以美团6个月目标价72--80港币，予以“买入”评级。（1人民币=1.1283港元）
风险提示：外卖骑手成本难以下降，餐饮外卖政策风险，到店旅游等行业竞争激烈，旅游业务等受经济周期影响较大，新业务致使亏损增加。
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