中芯国际(0981.HK)14nm年底贡献收入N+1进入客户导入阶段维持“审慎增持”评级
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价： 9.5 港元
投资要点
2Q19业绩：收入7.91亿美元，环比增长18.2%，同比下滑-11.2%。毛利率19.1%，环比提高0.9pct，主要得益于产能利用率提高及产品结构改善。Non-GAAP的经营开支为2.49亿美元，低于上季度指引（2.69-2.73亿美元），主要得益于研发费用、管理费用的控制。归母净利润为1854万美元，非控制权益承担亏损4329万美元。
3Q19指引：公司预计3Q19销售收入环比增长0%-2%（剔除出售的阿韦扎诺晶圆厂环比增长2%-4%），非控制权益承担损失2500-2700万美元。提高全年晶圆代工资本开支计划至23亿美元（原先是21亿美元），主要投入到上海合资厂和FinFET研发线。
14nm已风险量产，年底将贡献有意义的收入。14nm研发进度顺利，已经进入风险量产阶段，标志着中芯国际成为中国大陆最先进的晶圆代工厂。对于14nm，中芯正在与很多国际客户积极接触之中。Tape-out的项目数已经有10多个，客户基础还在扩大之中。14nm预计今年秋季正式量产，预计到2019年底可以看到有意义的收入。中芯的14nm已经有汽车应用的项目成功Tape-out，这是公司第一代FinFET的又一突破。12nm研发稳步推进，客户导入的进程顺利，预计到年底可以有多个项目Tape-out。
FinFET技术研发加速，N+1进入客户导入阶段。中芯的N+1技术已经进入客户导入阶段，而14nm的客户导入仅仅是在1年以前。在第一阶段，14nm及12nm的miniline产能约3K/月，会逐渐增加至6K、9K、15K。
投资建议：我们认为公司长期投资逻辑不变，看好公司坚定发展先进制程的战略。公司未来有望成为国际市场上仅次于台积电和三星的晶圆代工大厂，背靠国内半导体产业需求，长期价值不减。我们预测公司2019/20/21年每股净资产为1.10/1.14/1.18美元，按2019年1.1倍PB估值，维持公司目标价9.5港元，维持“审慎增持”评级。
风险提示：终端需求低迷、宏观环境不确定性、产品价格竞争
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