融信中国(03301.HK)杠杆降至正常水平下半年供货加快
机构：光大证券
投资要点
我们的观点：公司以均衡稳健经营为原则，上半年继续优化财务降低杠杆，账面现金较2018年末增长28%，净负债率较2018A降低28个百分点，降至行业正常水平。公司上下半年推货节奏不均，上半年销售增速较缓，下半年预计将新推1200亿货值，加大供货力度。公司上半年积极拿地，继续重仓长三角，太原和郑州的大型一二级联动项目陆续转化土储，这部分土储预计可更快的转化为可售货值。公司整体土地成本不高，在行业中保持一定优势。公司的当前股价对应2018年股息收益率为3.7%，对应2018年PE为6倍，推荐投资者关注。
中期业绩符合预期：2019H1公司实现营业收入266.2亿元，同比增长86.3%；毛利润为63.6亿元，同比增长52.0%；核心净利润为19.6亿元，同比增长25.9%。利润率保持稳定，毛利率为23.9%，核心净利率为7.3%，均与2018年末持平，中期业绩整体符合预期。
下半年加大供货力度：2019H1年公司实现合约销售金额和面积567亿元、282万平米，分别同比增长3.9%、11.1%，上半年销售完成全年目标四成，公司目前销售完成度较行业其他房企略低，主要源于推货节奏不均下半年推货较多。下半年公司可售货值为1200亿元，预计去化率达到69%可完成全年任务。上半年销售均价为20100元/平米，同比下降6.5%，保持行业领先水平。合约销售按区域分布，杭州的合约销售占比达到36%，其他销售贡献较大的城市为福州、上海、南京、郑州，上半年销售金额分别占比12%、11%、6%、4%。
拿地成本保持优势：2019H1公司新增了23个土地项目，新增建筑面积为420.8万平米，超过一半位于长三角地区，新增拿地成本为4207元/平米，占销售均价比例仅21%，拿地溢价率为12.6%，保持较低水平。截至2019年6月，公司的总土地储备为2650万平米，较2018年增长4.3%，整体土地成本为4465元/平米。公司的土地储备在长三角和海西地区占比较高，分别占比42%和25%。公司在郑州和太原的大型一二级联动项目陆续转化，上半年公司已摘牌郑州近60万平米土地，两城市预计在未来进一步转化的一级项目超过600万平米。
风险提示：宏观经济增长放缓、行业调控政策加严、流动性收紧、商品房销售不及预期、人民币贬值。
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