统一企业中国(00220.HK)毛利率提升致业绩超预期下半年有望维持趋势维持“审慎增持“评级目标价9.6港元
机构：兴业证券
评级：审慎增持
目标价：9.6 港元
投资要点
毛利率大幅提升致1H19业绩超预期：公司1H19收入114.70亿元，YoY+2.2%，基本符合Bloomberg一致预期。毛利率大幅提升3.1pct，使得净利润为9.97亿元，YoY+39.6%，超出Bloomberg一致预期的8.82亿元13.1%。其中2Q19净利润6.17亿元，YoY+39.6%。
收入增长主要源于汤达人和阿萨姆奶茶：分业务来看，1H19方便面收入为42.68亿元，YoY+2.8%，占比37%；饮料收入为67.95亿元，YoY+0.6%，占比59%。其中，方便面的增长主要因为汤达人增长超20%至11亿元左右，高价面（5元以上）占比提升至30%。饮料方面，茶饮料收入31.84亿元，YoY-6.2%，主要是由于小茗同学的销售收入不佳，红绿茶则收入持平；果汁收入9.18亿元，YoY+0.1%，主要由于鲜橙多从2Q19开始正增长，海之言1H19亦恢复增长；奶茶和咖啡收入24.47亿元，YoY+12.8%，主要来自于阿萨姆奶茶收入增长超10%，而咖啡小幅度衰退；其他主要为瓶装水，收入下滑超10%。
原材料价格下跌+减税+产品结构调整使毛利率大增3.1pct，费用率稳定：1H19公司毛利为41.95亿元，YoY+11.7%，毛利率为36.6%，YoY+3.1pct；其中饮料毛利率为40.7%，YoY+3.2pct，方便面毛利率为32.2%，YoY+3.2pct。毛利率的上涨主要是由于原材料的价格下跌，贡献了1.7pct；减税贡献了1pct，其他0.4pct是由于产品结构的调整。公司1H19费用率稳定，其中销售费用率为22.1%，YoY+0.3pct，主要是增加了广告及促销费用；管理费用率为4.2%，YoY-0.2pct，主要由于VAT相关的附加税带来的下降。
我们的观点：正如我们预期，1H19公司低端产品受到行业无序价格竞争的冲击，但在高端产品汤达人和阿萨姆奶茶的带动下，依然实现收入小幅增长。预计全年在高端产品和无糖茶等新品的带动下，仍能维持收入低单位数增长。预计毛利率方面2H19仍然有望大幅提升，一是因为原材料成本维持低位，二是减税降费利好从2Q开始，下半年受益幅度会更大，三是产品结构提升的持续贡献。费用方面，公司会加大品牌投入和消费者沟通，预计A&P费率会有提升，但整体基本维持平稳。我们上调盈利预测以反映毛利率的超预期，预计2019-2020年净利润14.36/15.85亿元，同比+39.5%/+10.4%，上调幅度为17.4%/11.5%；上调目标价18.7%至9.6港元，对应2019年/2020年PE为24.6x/22.2x，维持审慎增持评级。
风险提示：原材料价格变动超预期；费用超预期;市场竞争加剧。
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