信义光能(968.HK)2019年半年报点评下半年展望乐观维持“买入”评级目标价4.40港币
机构：光大证券
评级：买入
目标价：4.40港币
中期净利9.53亿港币，同比下降21.5%：公司2019年中期收入39.97亿，同比下降4.3%；中期净利9.53亿，同比下降21.5%；每股基本盈利12.07港仙，同比下降26.2%；每股中期股息5.5港仙。
◆上半年光伏玻璃销量同比增13.6%、毛利率27.3%：上半年公司光伏玻璃销量同比增长13.6%（按吨数算），销售价格同比下跌超过10%，叠加汇率因素，导致光伏玻璃销售收入同比下降5.9%（29.24亿）；营收占比73.2%，同比下降1.2个百分点；海外销售75.8%，同比下降3.9个百分点；光伏玻璃毛利率27.3%，同比下降6.1个百分点。
◆上半年光伏发电营收同比增长8.4%：公司大部分光伏电站位于华中地区（安徽、湖北），受19年一季度阴雨天气影响，再加上期内新增装机规模较少（30MW），上半年公司光伏发电营收10.24亿，同比仅增长8.4%。截止19年中期末，公司已核准并网2.53GW，同时有470MW及70MW项目纳入第一批光伏平价及竞价项目；未收回新能源补贴27.81亿（18年末21.78亿）。
◆光伏玻璃需求强劲，库存偏紧，下半年展望乐观：当前价格（26.3元/平米）对应毛利率约30%，管理层指引下半年毛利率稳中有升。光伏玻璃行业库存10-15天，处于历史低位；随着国内竞价项目装机启动，预计9月开始需求放量。公司下半年冷修产能复产、2020年计划新增4条日熔量1000吨超白光伏原片生产线，并计划于广西购买超白硅砂矿以降低硅砂成本波动及确保长期稳定供应。
◆维持目标价HK$4.40及“买入”评级
相较中期业绩，我们更看好公司下半年及明后年增长前景，以及分拆利好释放（包括负债率下降、融资灵活性提高、子公司估值释放、继续并表同时享受高派息）。预计公司19-21年产能释放加速（CAGR23%），19-21年收入、净利CAGR分别为25%、21%。维持目标价4.40港币及“买入”评级。当前估值13.5x2019年P/E。
◆风险提示：光伏玻璃产能投运不达预期；终端需求低于预期。
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