华虹半导体(01347.HK)2019年Q2业绩点评3Q营收指引环比改善幅度低于预期毛利率存在超指引可能维持“增持”评级目标价19.5元港币
机构：光大证券
评级：增持
目标价：19.5元港币
◆2Q毛利率表现超预期，非经营性收益大幅增加为净利润超预期主因
2Q19公司实现营收2.30亿美元，同比基本持平，环比上升4.2%，与公司指引相吻合。毛利率为31.0%，同比下降2.6个百分点，环比下降1.2个百分点，高于公司指引30%，主要由于产能利用率提升超预期；叠加12寸厂相关的经营开支增加影响，经营利润率同比下降3.1个百分点至15.7%，对应经营利润为0.36亿美元，同比下降17%，环比下降8%，较彭博一致预期的0.39亿低约8%。由于金融资产公允价值变动等非经营性收益影响，净利率同比提升1.7个百分点至21.7%，实现净利润0.50亿美元，同比增长9%。
◆2Q短期订单选择战略调整，依旧能够保障整体盈利表现
2Q19晶圆出货量仍然维持同比下降2%，但环比大幅上升10%，导致产能利用率由1Q19的87%超预期回升至93%。晶圆ASP自1Q19创历史高位后2Q19有所回落，环比下降5%。二季度晶圆出货拉量明显但ASP回落，我们分析这是公司短期内订单选择战略调整的结果，公司通过承接ASP相对低的项目以拉升产能利用率，依旧能够保障整体盈利表现。
◆3Q营收指引环比改善幅度低于预期，3Q毛利率表现存在超指引可能
2Q19分立器件分部延续强势表现，维持同比及环比上升态势，保障整体业绩表现；eNVM、模拟及PMIC分部继续同比下滑，但模拟及PMIC产品需求恢复值得关注，2Q19环比大幅上升40%。公司指引3Q19整体营收2.38亿美元，继续同比下降1.3%，环比上升3.5%，环比改善幅度低于彭博一致预期的7.2%；公司指引3Q19毛利率为31.0%与2Q持平，我们预计公司3Q产能利用率大概率高于2Q有望驱动毛利率超指引表现。
◆估值与评级
鉴于非经营性收益超预期增加，上调19年净利润预测7%至1.8亿美元；综合8寸盈利改善、12寸产能释放拖累整体盈利影响，维持20年净利润预测为2.0亿美元，下调21年净利润预测14%至2.2亿美元，对应18-21ECAGR为8%。公司由8寸稳定盈利切换至12寸产能扩张阶段，预计公司18-21EEBITDACAGR达15%显著高于大多数同业个位数增速，维持目标价19.5元港币（对应19年1.4倍PB/18倍PE），维持“增持”评级。
◆风险提示：中国区晶圆代工竞争加剧；产品结构改善不及预期
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