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麦格理料7至8月香港零售销售跌势加剧吁候低吸纳零售股
格隆汇 08-02 17:03

麦格理发表研究报告,指香港6月零售销售货值按年跌6.7%,远逊市场预期,跌幅亦较5月大幅扩大。今年上半年,零售销售货值按年跌2.6%。除了高基数影响外,连串示威活动亦冲击6月零售销售。据该行渠道调查,料7及8月零售销售跌幅或更惨烈。

报告指,6月黄金、首饰及钟表销售跌幅扩大。据该行行业调查所知,绝大部分金饰零售商6月同店销售跌约10%至20%不等,7月估计只会更差。麦格理料,倘示威活动旷日持久,零售商将审视其香港分店网络。但另一方面,它们预期未来续租租金有下调空间。

麦格理称,6月访港旅客同比升8.5%至约514万人,内地旅客增幅,由5月的23.6%大幅放缓至10.1%。由于社会冲突升级及多国向香港发旅游警示,料7至8月访港旅客增幅进一步放缓。该行行业调查所知,8月酒店预约仅五成,较以往达八成大相迳庭。

报告表示,料在现时社会动荡下,香港零售商股价无可避免受冲击。不过,该行相信投资者应考虑利用机会趁低吸纳,由于香港零售股大多估值低企,而自由现金流收益率理想。该行喜好金饰股,如周大福(1929.HK)、六福(0590.HK)及周生生(0116.HK),因它们透过产品差异在内地扩大市占。同时金价上升料有利毛利率。麦格理称,喜好六福,源于估值吸引,采购能力高及品牌组合具优势。

该行予香港零售股投资评级及目标价表列如下:

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