《业绩前瞻》券商料长和(00001.HK)中期多赚2%至7%电讯业务支撑增长
长和(00001.HK)将於本周四(8月1日)公布截至今年6月底止中期业绩，由於集团近年重组基建项目并售予同系长实集团(01113.HK)等，预期长和旗下基建业务及能源业务(油价下滑打击赫斯基表现)表现有所倒退，但零售及港口业务平稳，兼且3集团业务受惠收购WindTre交易，本网综合4间券商预测，长和今年上半年纯利料介乎183.72亿至193亿元，较2018年同期180.2亿元，按年增长2%至7.1%；中位数为184.14亿元，按年增长2.2%。
综合3间券商料长和2019年每股中期息预测介乎0.87元至0.89元，较去年同期0.87元，按年持平至升2.3%。
【基建业务呈走弱 并购领电讯业务】
摩根士丹利预计，长和中期纯利184.47亿元按年升2.4%(按半年则跌12%)，除息税前溢利(EBIT)按年跌1.7%至348亿元，除息税折旧摊销前溢利(EBITDA)按年跌0.4%至551.13亿元，料其每股中期股息派87港仙，派息比率18%。
该行指出，长和三大收入来源分别为电讯、基建及零售业务，欧洲电讯业务受惠收购WindTre五成股权，估计3集团(欧洲)业务今年上半年EBIT按年升36%至101.75亿元、零售业务EBIT按年增长5%(按半年跌11%)，两者均受中国及欧洲汇价不利影响。该行亦预期长和旗下基建业务EBITDA按年跌23%至105.56亿元，因受向长实集团(01113.HK)出售基建资产影响。该行估计长和上半年港口业务EBIT则料按年升约3%至63.91亿元。此外，旗下赫斯基能源中期纯利持平，但长和将从派息增加受惠，
【关注资本策略 及屈臣氏中国】
里昂预期长和中期纯利按年升7%至193亿，受惠於WindTre收购交易，而该行关注长和资本配置策略及屈臣氏中国的同店销售增长表现。但美银美林为，短期内未看到长和催化剂，尚需等待，以其现估值来看，倘脱欧能达成协议或有其他价值显现的行动，该行料长和股价将有理想反应。
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本网综合4间券商预测，长和今年上半年纯利料介乎183.72亿至193亿元，较2018年同期180.2亿元，按年增长2.0%至7.1%；中位数为184.14亿元，按年增长2.2%。
券商│今年上半年纯利预测│按年变幅
里昂│193亿元│+7.1%
摩根士丹利│184.47亿元│+2.4%
高盛│183.81亿元│+2%
美银美林│183.72亿元│+2%
按长和2018年上年度纯利180.2亿元推算
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综合2间券商预测，长和今年上半年EBIT(税前息前利润)预测介乎348亿元至355.1亿元，较2018年同期353.88亿元，按年微跌1.7%至升0.3%。
券商│今年上半年EBIT(税前息前利润)预测│按年变幅
高盛│355.1亿元│+0.3%
摩根士丹利│348亿元│-1.7%
按长和2018年上半年EBIT总额353.88亿元计算。
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本网综合3间券商料长和2019年每股中期息预测介乎0.87元至0.89元，较去年同期0.87元，按年持平至升2.3%。
券商│2019年每股中期息预测│按年变幅
高盛│0.89元│+2.3%
美银美林│0.88元│+1.1%
摩根士丹利│0.87元│持平
长和2018年每股中期息0.87元
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