美银美林长和(0001.HK)估值吸引但需等待催化剂降目标价至96港元
美银美林发表报告表示,重申予长和(0001.HK)
“
买入
”评级,惟目标价降4%,由100港元下调至96港元,反映下调对其每股资产净值(NAV)
预测,主要源自上市公司投资(特别是加拿大赫斯基能源)股价下滑及外汇等因素变动。
该行料长和上半年核心盈利按年升2%至184亿港元。随着收购意大利流动电讯营运商Wind Tre余下50%权益,料长和盈利增长将加快,不过,该行料其利好作用被外汇变动所抵销(欧元、人民币及英镑贬值6%至9%,影响其60%的EBIT);另油价下滑打击赫斯基表现,以及出售基建投资90%权益予长实集团(1113.HK)
牵头财团带来的收入损失。因此,该行料长和中期息按年仅升1%。美银美林下修长和2019至2021年各年每股盈测1%至2%,反映赫斯基盈测下调及外汇变动因素。
美银美林表示,倘英镑汇价稳定,料长和今年下半年盈利增长将加快,源于比较基数较低。长和现价相当于预测NAV折让43%,较过去15年历史均值低出近一个标准差,该行认为长和估值吸引。美银美林并料英国脱欧风险可控,料仅长和盈利仅构成4%打击。该行认为,短期内未看到长和催化剂,尚需等待,以其现估值来看,倘脱欧能达成协议或有其他价值显现的行动,该行料长和股价将有理想反应。
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