镇海炼油化工股份(1128.HK)永利皇宫扩展计划及其保守的指引调高至“买入“评级目标价23.3港元
机构：中泰国际
评级：买入
目标价：23.3港元
永利皇宫扩展详细内容
母公司永利度假村(WynnUS)近日举行了分析师及投资者推介会，并公布了一个名为“水晶莲宫“的永利皇宫扩展计划，整个项目设有两座各有约650间客房的楼店大楼，分两期进行，预计一期投入的资本开支为20亿美元。工程预计在2021年末动工，历时需时36个月以上，因此我们认为在2022年前永利澳门也不会有太多的资本开支，我们待公司公布进一步详情，才更新预测，而我们预测一期最快在2025年才能开幕。集团并未提出二期工程的资本开支及时间。若以经调整物业EBITDA(扣除一次性开支)为准则，集团对“水晶莲宫“的投资资本回报率(ROIC)目标约为15%至20%。根据2018年的经营数据，新濠影汇、澳门巴黎人及永利皇宫的ROIC分别为12%、17%及19%，随着澳门氹仔新项目竞争加剧，ROIC下跌的压力愈来愈大，若「水晶莲宫」缺乏博彩元素，我们认为集团的目标较为进取。
集团盈利指引略为保守
集团预计2019年至2021年整个澳门博彩毛收入复合年增长率为3.5%，认为基建带动中场业务的增长，并预期贵宾厅表现将会回稳。截至19年一季度，永利澳门在澳门博彩行业市占率为15.6%，而集团预计在2021年的市占率约15-17%，中值为16%，主要由于一)路氹项目经营改善、二)高端客户回流及、三)澳门半岛永利西面娱乐场的扩建，推动永利澳门的份额增加。另一方面，集团预计在2021年永利澳门的经调整物业EBITDA(扣除一次性开支)为16.46亿美元，我们认为这个指引相对保守。我们认为永利具有贵宾厅及高端中场的品牌效应，贵宾厅表现回稳对永利带来更高的弹性，我们预测永利澳门在2021年的经调整物业EBITDA为16.63亿美元，较集团指引高出1%。
估值便宜，潜在上升空间增加，调高评级至“买入“
虽然公司股价自六月以来累计反弹幅度达到27%，但是现价对应2019年预测EV/EBITDA仍为11.4倍，低于上市至今平均预测的15倍，我们重申目前估值仍然过于忧虑了贵宾厅下跌风险的观点，而且股价对应6.3%的预测股息率，仍具吸引力。我们给予13.5倍的19年EV/EBITDA估值，维持目标价23.3港元，对应现价有21.3%的潜在上升空间，我们将评级从“增持“调升至“买入“。
风险提示
(一)签证政策收紧；(二)赌场续牌风险；(三)中国经济放缓影响居民出游意欲
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