彩客化学（1986.HK）厚积薄发一鸣惊人首予“买入”评级目标价5.20港元
机构：安信国际
评级：买入
目标价：5.20港元
厚积薄发，一鸣惊人：彩客化学是全球领先的精细化学品生产商，核心产品市占率全球领先。公司经营历史可追溯至1997年，现拥有1500名员工。公司总部位于北京，旗下分染料及农业化学品中间体、颜料中间体、电池材料、环保技术咨询服务四大业务板块，在河北沧州和山东东营拥有生产基地。
报告摘要：DSD酸价格上涨带动公司业绩爆发。DSD酸是公司染料中间体板块的主要产品，主要用于生产造纸行业或洗涤行业所需要的荧光增白剂（OBA）。Frost&Sullivan预测DSD酸全球消费量每年增长3.3%，到2020E将达到6.6万吨。公司是DSD酸的全球领导者，目前已建成3.5万吨产能，市场份额达53%，另有2万吨产能在建设中。全球第二大DSD酸生产商连云港莱亚于2018年4月起因环保问题而停产，随着2019年3月响水爆炸事故发生，莱亚复产的可能不断降低，带动DSD酸价格持续上涨。预计公司2019-2020年DSD酸销售均价将分别达10万元/吨、9万元/吨，染料中间体板块收入将分别达到21.63亿元和27.08亿元，毛利率分别为80.4%和79.0%。
颜料中间体业务平稳增长。公司颜料中间体业务的主要产品包括DMSS、DMAS、DATA等，主要用于生产汽车涂料、高端建筑涂料、人造食用色素等。根据Frost&Sullivan，预计到2020年，DMSS和DMAS全球消费量将分别以11.9%和3.9%的复合增长率增长。公司目前拥有4500吨的DMSS产能、4500吨的DMAS产能、和2000吨的DATA产能，是全球最大的DMSS生产商、全球第二大的DMAS生产商。随着颜料中间体市场稳定增长，预计未来公司颜料中间体业务收入将稳定增长，同时高毛利的DATA销量占比不断提升，毛利率也将不断提升。
电池材料带来新的长期增长点。在政府的强力推动下，国内新能源汽车行业持续快速发展，极大地刺激了对于电池材料的需求。公司在河北沧州建设了1.5万吨的锂电池正极材料前驱体磷酸铁的生产线，生产工艺先进，目前已实现了小批量生产。公司还拥有2000吨碳纳米管导电浆料生产线，并于清华大学共同开发三元材料前驱体产品。相信未来该业务拥有较好的增长潜力。
首予“买入”评级，目标价5.20港元。认为由于行业格局良好且缺乏新增产能，DSD的价格上涨具有可持续性，带动公司短期业绩爆发。同时，公司维持30%的派息率，2019年股息率将达到12.5%，具有极高吸引力。此外，电池材料业务将为公司带来新的长期增长点。首予“买入”评级，目标价5.20港元，较现价有67%上涨空间。目标价对应2019E和2020EP/E分别为4.0x和3.3x。
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