中国奥园（3883.HK）销售跻身千亿业绩高速增长给予“强烈推荐”评级目标价14.50港元
机构：克而瑞证券
评级：强烈推荐
目标价：14.50港元
中国奥园起步于华南，多年来深耕粤港澳大湾区。得益于正确的经营策略和良好的公司治理，公司近年迈入增长快车道。2018年公司业绩亮眼，销售延续高增长态势；当前可售资源充足，且具备较好的盈利空间；目前公司NAV折价35%，2019年PE7.1X，伴随着业绩进入强结转周期，公司价值将持续凸显。首次覆盖，给予“强烈推荐”评级，目标价14.50港元/股（对应NAV折让20%）。
2018年业绩高速增长，派息稳定宽裕。公司2018年实现营业收入310.1亿元，同比+62.2%；实现毛利润96.3亿元，同比+88.5%，值得关注的是，毛利率为31.1%，较2018年提升4.3pct，盈利能力持续提升；实现核心净利润30.7亿元，同比+62.7%，核心净利润率为9.9%，与去年持平。公司派发期末股息每股人民币36分（42港仙），派息比例达40%，维持稳定宽裕的派息政策。
销售金额大幅提升，2019年冲击千亿门槛。2018年公司实现合同销售金额912.8亿元，同比+100.2%，为增速最快的内房之一，2019年销售金额将冲击千亿门槛；实现合同销售面积886.3万方，同比+98%；销售均价为10300元/平方米，同比+1.4%；公司2019年销售目标1140亿元，对应25%增速。
拿地较为稳健，项目利润空间充足。截至2018年末，公司土地储备总建筑面积达3410万平方米，权益比80%，可售资源充裕。2018年新增项目楼面均价/销售均价为21.0%，远低于行业平均水平，项目具备较好的盈利空间；当年拿地成本/全口径销售金额为30.0%，较2017年下降30pct，在销售整体转冷的大环境下，公司适当削减土地投资力度，为后续择时补仓提供充足弹药。
财务结构健康，具备进一步加杠杆空间。截至2018年末，公司手持现金396.2亿元，同比+45.4%，短期负债的保障倍数为1.52。公司净负债率58.9%，较2018年提+7.9pct，但仍远低于行业平均水平，未来具备进一步加杠杆的空间。
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