海通恒信(1905.HK)依托「一大一小」客户战略实现高速发展首次覆盖给予买入评级目标价1.94港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：1.94港元
概要。作为海通证券（6837HK）的战略板块，海通恆信为客户提供融资租赁、经营租赁、保理、委贷、以及咨询服务。2016至2018年，公司营业收入年复合增长率为29.8％，达人民币53.32亿元。我们预计2019/20年公司营业收入将进一步增至71.96/87.28亿元。根据彭博，香港上市的租赁公司2019年预测市账率平均为1.0倍。公司当前股价相当于0.7倍2019年预测市账率。使用行业平均市账率，我们的目标价为每股1.94港元，潜在升幅为34.8％，首次覆盖，给予买入评级。
依托「一大一小」客户战略实现高速发展。公司与政府及大中型企业客户建立了长期稳定的合作关系，并全力发展极具潜力的小微企业及个人客户。2016至2018年，来自前者的收入年复合增长率为12.8%，由25.94亿元增至33亿元；来自后者的收入年复合增长率为88.8%，由5.7亿元增至20.32亿元。除2016年以外，小微企业及个人客户的生息资产平均收益率均高于政府及大中型企业客户。
以相对较低的融资成本支持业务增长。公司的主体信用评级为AAA，公司能够以相对较低的成本融资，以支持业务增长。2016/17/18年，公司的加权平均利率分别为4.4%/5.0%/5.0%。叠加高收益、不断增长的小微企业及个人客户群，料公司净息差有望提升。我们预计2019/20年，公司净息差将提升至2.01%/2.02%/2.02%。
风控措施审慎，不良展望稳定。公司为不同行业、不同客群制定了差异化信用审核原则。2016至2018年，公司不良资产率稳步改善，由1.10%下降至0.94%。我们预计2019/20年，公司不良资产率将保持稳定。
首次覆盖，给予买入评级，目标价1.94港元。根据彭博，香港上市的租赁公司2019年预测市账率平均为1.0倍。公司当前股价相当于0.7倍2019年预测市账率。使用行业平均市账率，我们的目标价为每股1.94港元，潜在升幅为34.8％，首次覆盖，给予买入评级。
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