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摩通内银看好招行(3968.HK)及邮储行(01658.HK)
格隆汇 07-18 14:17
摩根大通发表内银股报告,偏好招行(3968.HK) 及邮储行(1658.HK) ,并建议回避重农行(3618.HK) 及民行(1988.HK) 。摩根大通指,招行拥有强劲盈利能力、领先零售业务及谨慎风险管理,邮储行则有具流动性的资产负债表、改善的效率等因素推动股本回报率上升。重农行及民行则面对信货风险及融资成本上升问题。
摩根大通表示,内银今年面对潜在资产质素转差趋势,从企业债务违约增加及中小企财务转弱可见。大型银行面对政策风险,尤其支持普惠金融,人行或透过要求银行把借贷利率与同业利率挂钩,下调有效借贷利率,纵使该行不预期这种情况出现。
摩根大通又指,中国收紧影子银行导致企业杠杆及影子信贷稳定,目前内银股股价相等于2019年预测市帐率0.63倍及不良贷款比率6.6%。若加上坏帐记帐,去年经调整不良贷款率为6.6%,较2014年高4.6个百分点,并预测有关比率在2021年升至7%,显着高于今年首季列帐的1.8%。该行又认为,监管当局进一步收紧对不良贷款及其他金融资产的信贷风险识别,改善内银贷款拨备,为未来盈利提供缓冲。
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