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渣打下調香港今年經濟增長預測至1.4%未見明顯走資
阿思達克 07-18 12:40

渣打大中華區高級經濟師劉健恆在記者會上表示,本港上半年經濟數據表現較預期為差,次季數據對比首季沒有明顯改善,其中零售及出口表現面臨收縮,加上本地消費意慾偏弱及中美貿易問題難以在短期內解決,該行將本港今年經濟增長預測由2.2%下調至1.4%。

他估計,香港經濟需要更長時間復甦,明年經濟增長料為2%,2021年增長為2.3%,要重回10年平均增長2.7%至2.8%需要較長時間。

息口方面,劉氏稱Hibor早前因半年結及大型招股活動影響而抽升,但近日已見回落,在預期聯儲局今年減息兩次的背景下,料Hibor趨勢亦會向下,但因本港以往沒有跟足美國加息,最優惠利率下調空間有限。而Hibor與Libor未來的息差,亦料將不會再如年初般達80至100點子。

他又指,現時本港銀行體系結餘跌至約540億元,資金只屬足夠而非充裕,相信季節性因素對Hibor的影響會加大及成為常態。至於近日本港持續出現示威活動及政治不穩定,市場有否出現走資情況,劉健恆表示港匯未見大幅轉弱,看不到出現明顯走資。

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