中联重科(1157.HK)二季度盈利远超预期；维持“买入”评级上调目标价至6.95港元
机构：招商银行
评级：买入
目标价：6.95 港 元
概要。中联重科上周五发盈喜，意味二季度净利润同比增长 1.9 倍至 2.5 倍。 2019 上半年净利润介乎 24亿至 27亿元人民币，已占全年市场预测的 72-82%， 表现远超预期。考虑到意外强劲的盈利表现，我们上调 2019-21 年盈利预测 3239%，并基于 1.2 倍 2019 年预测市帐率（从 1 倍上调），上调目标价至 6.95 港 元。中联重科（H股）是我们的行业首选。
二季度盈利爆炸性增长。中联重科初步估计其上半年的净利润增长 1.72 倍至 2.12 倍至 24 亿至 27 亿元人民币（基于中国公认会计准则计算）。增长主要 受数项因素驱动，包括（1）房地产及基建项目带动混凝土和起重机设备的使 用；（2）中联重科核心产品如泵车、塔式起重机和建筑起重机的需求强劲； （3）费用率下降。在 2019 年二季度，隐含净利润介乎 14 亿至 17 亿元人民 币，同比增长 1.9倍至 2.5倍，环比增长 39-69%。
对起重机和混凝土机械看法维持正面。根据中国工程机械工业协会数据，汽 车起重机的销量在今年首五个月同比大幅增长 63%（以国内九家主要企业计 算），我们相信中联重科的销量增长将高于平均水平。基建开支回升及国家排 放标准升级料将继续推动汽车起重机的未来需求。另一方面，自今年年初以来 房地产建设持续回暖，塔式起重机和混凝土机械的需求获得支持。我们预计中 联重科将从较小型的塔式起重机企业获得更多市场份额。
上调 2019-21 年盈利预测 32-39%。我们将 2019/20/21 年收入预测上调 7%/8%/8%，并上调我们的毛利率假设。此外，我们假设显著的经营杠杆效应 将带动盈利增长。
重申「买入」。我们的新目标价 6.95港元是基于 1.2倍 2019年预测市帐率、 以及 2019-21 年 10-12%权益收益率而定。我们以 2013 年估值作为基准，当 时权益收益率为 12%。公司将迎来的催化剂包括：（1）短期内市场带动盈利 增长；（2）月度行业销售数据持续强劲。
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