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大和下调达利食品(3799.HK)目标价至7.1港元评级“买入”
格隆汇 07-16 11:40

大和发表报告指,早前参与了达利食品(03799.HK)的反向路演,主要针对保质期较短的面包品牌「美焙辰」,公司管理层指相关业务销售增长强劲,今年上半年内按月增长达30%,相信2019年品牌有望达到收入10亿元人民币的目标,并达到收支平衡。上半年相关品牌产品增加22种至约50种,而销售点亦增至7万个,管理层预计下半年相关业务收入按月仍有双位数增长,该行认为公司估值不高,重申“买入”评级。

该行指出,虽然「美焙辰」较迟进入市场,但公司期望依赖其全国生产网络及参考竞争对手经验等,提升在相关市场的占有率,「美焙辰」的零售价与市场类似产品相近,而新品类产品则期望毛利率可较现有产品高3-5个百分点。

大和指出「美焙辰」现时有760个分销商,而当中一半过往亦有分销达利其他产品,管理层期望到2019年底前分销商可增至1,000个,而「美焙辰」14家厂房中有11家可扭亏。该行指出规模效应对公司而言很重要,因为其物流及营销成本均是固定开支,另外管理层亦期望透过研究客户反馈,在年底前将退货率由14%降至13%。

大和认为受上半年饮品需求弱拖累,预计上半年达利食品收入及净利增长均较弱,将公司2019-21年收入及每股盈测下调2-3%,预计上半年其盈利增长将较呆滞,而下半年或见复苏,目标价由7.7港元降至7.1港元,此相当预测市盈率20倍。

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