G20峰会成世界焦点港股等待7月翻身
机构：国信证券
中美领导人上周终于确认G20峰会会面,打破一个多月来中美两国紧张气氛。惟特朗普主动致电，以及急不及待表示双方谈判团队在G20前恢复磋商可以解读为美方对达成协议相对较焦急。尽管美国领导人及贸易官员一改之前对中国强硬态度，以及提前向媒体表示G20不是达成协的地方，只是为G20峰会会面制造缓和气氛，给市场贸易谈判是短期不能达成的预期。但到目前为止中美双方互相制裁的抗衡措施有增无减，包括上周路透报道，美国共和党参议员鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)提交法案，寻求阻止中国电讯商华为追讨侵犯专利许可费。美国商务部再将5间中国企业列入实体列表，禁止他们在未获得美国批准前，购买美国的零部件，包括超级计算机制造商中科曙光、3间设计芯片的关连企业，以及隶属解放军战略支持部网络系统部的无锡江南计算技术研究所。中国则连续第二个月减持美国国债。中国所持美债，下降至近两年来最低水平。中国两个反制清单内容并未公布，惟继续对部分针对中国之国家商品进行反倾销立案调查或禁入口，包括:美国、南韩、欧盟的进口三元乙丙橡胶和一家加拿大猪肉加工企业。
上周美伊局势再次升温，上周初美国宣布向中东增派千名美军士兵，伊朗威胁将提升浓缩铀生产能力并突破伊核协议限制。上周五，美国海军一架高空无人机在飞越霍尔木兹海峡空域时被伊朗击落，伊朗方面随后表示无意与任何国家开战，但已经做好了开战准备。美国总统特朗普回应称，伊朗犯下了“巨大的错误”，原来决定攻打伊朗，但最终在实行前15分钟放弃计划，但特朗普表示，本周一(24日)将宣布向伊朗实施新的制裁。
短期而言，市场将关注本周 G20峰会贸易谈判进展，以及美联储主席及官员在公开演说会否就减息为市场带来更多启示。市场资金方面，沪深股通北向资金开始回稳，港股通南向资金亦持续录得净流入，有助港股回暖。鉴于特朗普反口覆舌套路经常发生，本周或可收割部分在近一周反弹幅度明显之仓位，待G20结束，贸谈明朗化一点，再度部署，我们建议关注回调幅度较大、估值相对吸引以及不受贸易战影响之行业，因为可减少政治黑天鹅风险，当中包括:物业管理、消费-必需品、有色金属和基建。
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