大消费周观点食饮中报有望稳健增长社服迎来行业旺季
机构：东兴证券
食品饮料：估值处于合理区间，半年报有望持续稳健增长
二季度4月、5月份经济数据持续走弱，基本面持续承压，“类滞涨”有所显现，叠加贸易摩擦，外部环境需持续确认。5月CPI同比上涨2.7%，涨幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点，创15个月新高。5月份CPI涨幅扩大主要是由供给侧导致，鲜菜、鲜果、猪肉这三类产品价格分别同比上涨13.3%、26.7%和18.2%，核心CPI整体保持平稳态势。往前看，低基数效应消退后CPI上行压力减弱。5月社会消费品零售总额名义同比增速从4月的7.2%上升至8.6%，剔除价格因素，实际零售同比增速从4月的5.1%上升至6.4%，4-5月平均零售量增长比1季度7%左右的增速逊色不少，主要是由于减税降费边际影响趋弱、节假日因素导致的消费增长不可持续。
高端白酒市场扩容加速，茅台6月底前向市场投放2000吨，白酒行业结构性调整将随消费升级的提升不断加快。白酒消费群体趋于稳定，行业的周期性在减弱，白酒消费随经济的波动性减小，长期需求潜力充足，19Q2淡季提价为旺季放量做好准备。长期看好茅台、五粮液，重点推荐泸州老窖、酒鬼酒。啤酒板块旺季加速复苏，叠加结构升级，行业景气度逐渐回暖，建议关注青岛啤酒、重庆啤酒和珠江啤酒。原奶供应在乳企竞争中的地位越发凸显。奶粉新政确保行业未来五年健康发展，类似贝因美与康宏牧业这样的战略合作后续会不断增加。双寡头伊利、蒙牛常温液态奶集中度持续提升，并加速布局低温液态奶上游资源。在上游牧场资源区域布局上，蒙牛伊利有较大重合，但新乳业另辟蹊径，收购区域乳企布局双寡头“空白市场”，成效显著。长期推荐伊利股份，重点关注细分低温奶企新乳业、奶酪行业龙头妙可蓝多。调味品结构升级持续推升产品吨价，海天和中炬两大龙头，不断推进品类多元化和布局全国化。新兴复合调味品行业高速增长，火锅底料和川菜调料细分品类增长快、集中度提升空间足，重点推荐业绩拐点已致且估值位于中低位的安琪酵母。休闲食品双子星绝味和桃李在生产及销售模式上领先对手，供应链整合成效高，19年持续费用投入和渠道扩张做大规模，持续推荐。
【重点推荐】“泸州老窖+青岛啤酒”（东兴证券六月十大金股）
【长期推荐】贵州茅台、伊利股份、桃李面包、绝味食品、重庆啤酒
【重点关注】五粮液、古井贡酒、酒鬼酒、安琪酵母、恒顺醋业、好想你、珠江啤酒、香飘飘、妙可蓝多
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