銀公半年結臨近致拆息向上料6月底前或維持高水平
銀行公會主席禤惠儀表示,今年初市場普遍預期中美貿易談判有望取得進展,當時美國經濟數據普遍較理想,但隨著中美貿易戰糾紛升級,美國部分數據有轉差跡象,通脹水平亦低於聯儲局目標,市場開始改變對美國息口走勢的預期,現時甚至估計有機會減息。她指出在聯繫匯率制度下港息走勢應跟隨美息,但實際情況仍要視乎港息及美息的差距。
她表示,近期本港一個月拆息曾升穿逾十年高位,主要是由於半年結來臨,銀行在這段期間作出資金部署,故不排除到月底前拆息會維持相對高的水平。她指出現時一個月港息已高於美息,導致港元沽盤平倉、套息交易大幅減少,港匯亦見轉強,相信港匯在月底前會在現水平徘徊。
至於拆息上升,是否與阿里巴巴將來港上市或社會爭議事件等有關,她指出留意到最近社會多了討論政治的情況,整體認為金融體系運作正常,至於不明朗因素除本地之外,亦涉及外圍,包括是中美貿易戰、英國脫歐等,故預期下半年觀望氣氛及不明朗因素會較濃厚,所以會做好準備留意風險。
銀行公會重申,雖然香港經濟基調穩健,但作為外向形經濟體,外圍不穩定因素仍會為本港帶來挑戰,業界需提高風險意識,並提醒個人及企業客戶投資前需考慮風險承擔能力。
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