光大新鸿基料美联储今年减息一次人币下半年或「破7」另荐蒙牛等7股
光大新鸿基外汇策略师任晓平在记者会上表示,美国经济增长仍处高水平,加上失业率低企及美股持续上升,预期美国联储局今年难以如市场所料般减息两至三次,估计或仅最多於年底减息一次。
他又指,环球资金因避险而主要流入美国国债,带动美元上升,预期美汇指数或有机会高见100,只要避险情绪高涨,美元回落的可能性相对弱。人民币方面,任晓平估计,美元兑人民币在今年或於6.68至7.15的区间上落,下半年大机会升破「7算」,而内地资本管制已大致到位,相信即使升破「7算」,资金外流仍然可控。
另该行证券策略师伍礼贤称,中美两国难以在今年底彻底解决贸易问题,料或仅会达成部分阶段性协议。而任何有关中美贸易战的消息出现,都可能为港股带来较大波动,预测下半年恒指波动区间介乎25,000点至30,000点。
他提到,该行下半年三大投资主题分别为消费需求研稳、基建助力经济及黄金长线看俏。推荐7只相关板块股份,包括蒙牛乳业(02319.HK)、海底捞(06862.HK)、日清食品(01475.HK)、中铁(00390.HK)、中交建(01800.HK)、山东黄金(01787.HK)及招金矿业(01818.HK)。
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