《大行报告》德银料濠赌股触底及上调评级至「中性」升金沙及银娱评级
德银发表的报告指,澳门博彩业已进入其下行周期的第四阶段,认为基本面转差情况已趋稳,但外部因素仍拖累其估值低於历史平均,该行预期未来数月贵宾厅博彩收入将按年下跌,但下跌速度将较今年以来有所减缓,而中场博彩收入将维持强劲。
德银指出现时市场对今年澳门博彩收入预测已削至跌1%,认为看法现实,而该行则预测今年澳门赌收将按年跌2%。自2018年中以来,澳门博彩股已跑输MSCI香港指数38个百分点,随着基本面回稳以及大部分风险已反映在股价上,该行将濠赌股评级由「减持」提升至「中性」,将银河娱乐(00027.HK)及金沙中国(01928.HK)评级由「沽售」升至「持有」,维持新濠博亚为其首选,认为新濠博亚次季市场占有率增长强劲。该行认为行业已见底,但强调并未完全转向乐观,因为即使在下行周期第四阶段仍有很多风险及不确定性。
该行指出在2014-15年的下行周期,澳门博彩股跑输MSCI香港指数的情况在2015年第三季见底,但直至2016年第三季濠赌股方见可持续的复苏,主要因为受季节性因素影响投资者当时未能确定是否进入复苏。(el/u) ~
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