《大行報告》美銀美林濠賭股風險與回報率吸引料行業長期潛在升幅達四成
美銀美林發表報告表示,濠賭股自5月5日中美貿易戰升級以來股價已累積回落24%,相信是市場擔心中美貿易戰、經濟放緩、人民幣貶值、資本管制、賭牌續期等因素,指行業已回落至行業長期估值的1.2個標準差以下水平。但該行認為澳門博彩業盈利及市場情緒可望改善,目前濠賭股現水平僅預測今年企業價值對EBITDA的10.9倍,指風險與回報比率吸引。
該行指,基於宏觀經濟不明朗因素,決定下調對澳門今年博彩收入預測,由原來-1%降至-2%,並調低對澳門明年博彩收入增長預測,由原來11%降至6%,估計明年貴賓廳及中場賭收將可按年各升2%及9%。
美銀美林表示,基於長期平均估值估算,決定調整對濠賭股目標價,但料行業長期股價仍潛在上升43%。該行指,重申對金沙中國(01928.HK)「買入」評級,下調對對其目標價由50元降至47元;該行維持對銀河娛樂(00027.HK)「買入」評級,降目標價由67.6元降至64.2元。
市場關注澳門六大博彩營運商至2022年需續牌事,該行估計澳門政府將於2020年年中啟動相關續牌程序,料2021年年中會有結果,相信六大博彩營運商目前需續風險仍低,因六大博彩營運商均為澳門大型企業,均屬當地大型僱主。
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