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《大行》中銀證券:A股當前為「科技結構性牛市」 未來或轉入「全面牛」
阿思達克 09-26 15:14
中銀證券發表A股策略報告,認為本輪牛市仍有望實現慢牛、長牛,結構上類似2013至2014年疊加2016至2017年,組成先「結構牛」、後「全面牛」的「混合牛市」。 從增量資金的入市節奏視角,每一輪牛市都有顯著的增量資金,使得牛市的啟動可以脫離基本面、流動性等不同條件的約束。第一、二輪牛市以居民直接開戶為主,第三輪牛市依靠槓桿資金渠道、第四輪牛市陸股通為主要渠道,第五輪牛市公募基金為主要渠道。從2025年上半年情況來看,內地保險資金或發揮主要增量作用。行情進入8月後,融資餘額,保險,主動偏股型基金發行,被動ETF發行等各項資金數據並未出現大幅提升現象,如居民開戶並未出現明顯異動,融資餘額雖上行並創歷史新高,但佔流通市值比指標仍處於合意區間,當前主動偏股型基金發行較2022至2024年均值數據僅略顯回暖。整體而言,當前階段主力渠道並未顯現,參考此前五輪牛市的經驗,這種顯著的增量資金數據或更多體現在「牛中」和「牛頂」階段。 該行指,當前科技結構牛背後是市場部分資金對於AI硬件方向「結構性景氣」和「強產業趨勢」的正向積極反饋,但資金抱團部分大市值AI科技股的背後,需要考慮「一組矛盾」和」兩個問題」,即「抱團資金增量多不多」與「抱團板塊容量大不大」之間的矛盾。一是青睞參與抱團板塊資金的增量性,二是可被抱團方向的股票容量(數量),對比2019至2021年的「新半軍」(新能源、半導體及軍工)結構牛,市場的結構性景氣方向相對較多,如白酒、電新、電子、軍工等,而本輪結構性景氣方向相對更少,僅集中在海外算力方向,國產算力方向更多受溢出效應和預期所帶動。在一個長牛市的假設下,當前演繹的科技結構性牛市,在增量資金湧入容量較小的板塊背景下,強度或好於歷史可比階段,但時間長度佔比取決於後續主動偏股型基金的發行增量情況。 中銀證券料A股未來將轉入「全面牛」。對比類似的「2012-2015-2017」年完整的宏觀經濟「U」型修復背景下的市場輪動結構,從科技結構牛轉向順周期藍籌 牛,從小盤轉向龍頭大盤風格是可參考的經驗。 該行指全面牛(類似2016至2017年):宏觀經濟改善線索出現後,將進一步擴散至「全面牛」(市)屬性的「反內捲」、「消費」等方向。當前仍處於第一階段,繼續建議優先關注科技核心方向。
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