《大行》匯豐研究予恆指今年底目標27,010點 明年底上望31,000點
匯豐環球研究發表亞股策略報告表示,亞洲市場今年以來平均上漲20%,儘管受到外資拋售,但升市主要是歸因於當地個人投資者的買盤支持,特別是手握大量現金的中國投資者,而印度在區域上現在顯得有吸引力,該行將印度市場評級由「中性」上調至「增持」。
在中國股市特別是香港,經歷了一波強勁上漲後,有人質疑這股動能是否能延續。該行指估值雖然偏高,但還不到過分的程度,隨着散戶投資者手握22萬億美元現金,其中部分正逐步轉入股市,該行預期中國股市將緩慢上行。在今年H股的漲勢之後,內地投資者今年已向港股加碼了驚人的1,400億美元,遠超過過去三年每年600億美元的平均水平,該行認爲現在是同時增加A股與H股持倉的時候。
匯豐研究維持恆指今年底目標27,010點(相當預測市盈率12.2倍),予明年底目標31,000點(新引入)(相當預測市盈率12.8倍),該行維持國指今年底目標9,720點,予明年底目標11,250點(新引入)。該行上調富時中國指數今年底目標由31,030點升至31,760點,予明年底目標36,770點(新引入),調富時香港指數今年底目標由890點升至950點,予明年底目標1,070點。
該行維持對H股市場「增持」評級,指前所未有強勁的南向資金流入仍是市場跑贏的主要驅動因素,儘管互聯網公司面臨激烈競爭,但創新藥企及新經濟板塊表現突出,該行認爲對A股和H股看法更加平衡;估值差距已收窄,增長前景亦大致相近。
該行指香港的IPO市場正重振旗鼓,年初至今香港IPO融資額已超過180億美元,超過過去兩年總和。
匯豐研究維持對港股「增持」看法,相較之下,香港股票對利率變動的敏感度高於A股。美聯儲於9月17日下調利率25個基點,這是自去年12月以來的首次降息。HIBOR將進一步下行,對香港市場構成利好,這已反映在投資者信心上,而強勁的南向資金流入加上穩健的IPO趨勢,均推動港股流動性與市場動能,該行預期這些趨勢將延續。
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