植耀輝:科技股升幅大 短期料回調
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,聯儲局議息會議一如市場預期減息0.25厘,主席鮑威爾將今次決定視作「風險管理」;而根據點陣圖所預示,多數官員預期年內將再減息兩次。既然息口去向大致已有方向,相信投資者關注點將會集中於美國國內政策以至中美關係之上。
至於港股方面,恆指本月暫升5.8%,為今年第二佳表現月份(最佳月份為二月,升幅達到13.4%)。港股能夠有如此表現,最大功臣肯定是阿里-W(09988.HK),皆因其股價本月已累升近37%,雖然不及二月時45%之升幅,但依然跑羸一眾同業。阿里強勢主要受惠於多重利好因素,包括業績表現未有太受內地外賣大戰影響、AI及雲服務發展之憧憬,以及自主研發AI芯片等。由於炒作主題相當多,亦自然吸引投資者垂青,尤其是北水─單計9月北水持股量便由8.6%(約16.4億股)增至10.18%(約19.4億股)。若南下資金依然踴躍,阿里股價再升亦不出奇,只是短期升幅實不算少,現階段追貨的話須量力而為。
相比之下,隨著Labubu熱潮似有所減退,泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)股價亦受壓,加上被大行看淡前景,股價本月累跌已近兩成。過去於本欄已指出其投資最大考量在於如何判斷其熱潮是否能一直延續,今次回調可視為對其IP之一次考驗。策略上由於累跌不少,博反彈未嘗不可,但亦須嚴守止賺止蝕策略。
至於市場近日焦點則必然是一眾被納入港股通之新貴。其中一隻「B仔股」藥捷安康(02617.HK)相當誇張,本週二股價一度升超過兩倍,但同日即大插水,股價高位暴跌超過七成。此股在未有任何收入及盈利之情況下,市值一度被炒高至近2,700億港元,較恆指成份股之石藥(01093.HK)及中生製藥(01177.HK)還要高;每手入場費(以最高價計)更曾達到34萬港元!股價能如此喪炒,似乎亦幾不開北水手影,但北水一向快來快去,所以除非自問眼明快手快,否則還是做塘邊鶴較好。
另外,哈爾濱電氣(01133.HK)本週已升抵10元目標,筆者亦已按策略減持一半,由於仍看好其業務前景,餘下將作長線持有。
(筆者持有哈電股份)~
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