《大行》里昂:銀娛(00027.HK)擁穩健現金儲備可藉槓桿提升ROE 料可提高派息比率
里昂發表報表示,在所有澳門持牌博彩公司當中,銀河娛樂(00027.HK)擁有最穩健的現金儲備,最有條件運用財務槓桿,提升股東回報率(ROE)。潛在資金部署方式包括但不限於投資區內機會及增加派息。無論選擇哪種方式,均有助提升資本效益,令ROE(透過財務槓桿)上升。該行維持銀河娛樂「跑贏大市」評級及目標價50.3元。銀娛是該行在澳門博彩股的兩大首選之一,淨現金相當於當前市值的17%。
隨着資產負債表質素持續改善,該行指銀娛資金部署彈性甚大,其2025年第二季淨現金(303億港元,即39億美元)佔最新市值的17%。該行在早前中信里昂投資者論壇收到的投資者反饋顯示,投資者普遍歡迎增加派息(包括特別股息),特別是業界均認同行業增長結構性放緩。該行預測期內銀娛ROE(年化約13%)將低於2017-2019年的18-22%年化水平。
根據杜邦(DuPont)(是一種分解股東權益報酬率(ROE)結構、解析企業獲利能力的財務分析方法)分析,這主要受較低資產週轉率(澳門整體博彩收入仍未恢復至2019年水平)及較低財務槓桿(總資產/總股本)所影響。資產週轉率主要由行業收入決定,但銀娛可透過增加派息(包括特別股息)提升ROE。
另一方面,銀娛亦需保留資金,以把握泰國娛樂綜合體的投資機會。該行理解每個博彩牌照實體最低需投資1,000億泰銖(約31億美元),但現時法規時間及牌照招標進度尚未明確。該行維持原有投資邏輯,看好銀娛提升市佔率的潛力,以及仍有空間提高派息比率。
里昂料銀娛2025年至2027年每股派息143.4港仙、150.3港仙及163.4港仙,提供股息回報3.5釐、3.7釐及4釐,料其2025年至2027年ROE分別爲13.3%、13.2%及13.7%。(wl/u)。
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