《大行》交銀國際降蒙牛(02319.HK)目標價至21.51元 維持「買入」評級
交銀國際發表報告指,蒙牛(02319.HK)上半年業績低於預期,管理層下調全年指引。公司上半年收入按年下滑6.9%至415.7億元人民幣(下同);淨利潤按年降16.4%至20.5億元。儘管收入承壓,公司盈利能力有所改善。公司毛利率按年升1.4個百分點至41.7%,受益於原奶價格下行;同時,經營利潤率按年升1.5個百分點至8.5%,提效降費效果明顯。
管理層表示,近期終端需求恢復仍顯疲軟,預計下半年量價將延續下行趨勢,因而下調全年指引:全年收入預計下滑中-高單位數,全年經營利潤率預計與去年持平。
交銀國際認爲行業目前仍處於築底階段,需求恢復節奏仍有不確定性,建議持續關注原奶價格企穩後可能帶來的競爭格局改善及公司盈利能力的恢復空間。下調2025-2027年盈利預測,基於2026年15倍預期市盈率,目標價降至21.51港元。公司的分紅和回購計劃將提供一定的安全邊際。維持「買入」評級。
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