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《大行》摩通升拼多多(PDD.US)目標價至125美元 利潤可見度不高評級「中性」
阿思達克 08-26 12:34
摩根大通發表研究報告指出,儘管拼多多(PDD.US)次季利潤超出預期,但其利潤率在今年第三季度可能再次下降,2026年利潤可見性仍不明朗。考慮股價已接近年內高位,摩通認爲,最佳投資策略是等待更具吸引力的估值作爲安全邊際,故暫維持該股「中性」評級,目標價由原先105美元升至125美元,相當於預測2026年市盈率10倍。 摩通認爲,投資者應關注拼多多調整後營運利潤率,而非調整後淨利潤率,因本季度100億元人民幣的利息、投資收入不可持續,考慮到截至2025年第二季度末現金及短期投資爲3,870億元人民幣。摩通認爲影響利潤率的四個變動因素爲:季節性、跨境電商平臺Temu的營銷支出、以舊換新政策的補貼,以及社區團購市場競爭緩解。 摩通又預計,上述前兩個因素將在2025年第三季度拖累利潤率,後兩個因素將提供順風但力度不強,特別是考慮到管理層增加支出的意圖;預測2025年第三季度調整後營運利潤率、淨利潤率分別爲23%、23%,相較於2025年第二季度的27%、31%,2026年改善至26%。摩通認爲,由於透明度不足,許多投資者對將2026年預測完全反映到股價的信心將受限。 此外,摩通的觀察顯示,拼多多未見明顯回升勢頭,意味着2025年下半年收入增長可能不會顯着改善,難以支持高於同行的估值。在摩通看來,Temu仍是長期潛力的良好來源,但幾乎零披露將限制其估值,直到拼多多的數據能驗證Temu的改善收入增長重新加速或實現盈利。 摩通將拼多多今明兩年收入預測分別上調5%、10%,主要反映數據顯示Temu在美中關稅爭端中仍快速增長,並將今明兩年調整後淨利潤預測上調15%、12%,主要因利息、投資收入反彈。
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