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《大行》富瑞:英諾賽科(02577.HK)成英偉達800V直流電源合作商意義大 但量化潛力尚早
阿思達克 08-04 12:26
英諾賽科(02577.HK)入選英偉達(NVDA.US)800V直流電源架構合作商名錄,上周五(1日)股價抽升31%後,今早(4日)高開4.2%後持續向上,盤中曾高見65.6元,中午收報64.7元上揚12.3%,成交額15.36億元。 富瑞發表報告表示,英諾賽科加入英偉達800V直流電源供應商名單,對氮化鎵(GaN)和英諾賽科意義重大,英諾賽科作為矽解決方案的新供應商,且是名單上唯一的中國半導體公司。其他已列入名單的半導體公司包括:模擬器件(Analog Devices)、英飛凌(Infineon)(IFNNY.US)、MPS、Navitas(NVTS.US)、安森美(OnSemi)(ON.US)、Renasas(6723.JP)、羅姆(ROHM)、意法半導體(STM.US)、德州儀器(TXN.US)。英偉達的800V直流電源是一種全新架構,電壓顯著提高,該架構於2025年GTC發佈作為初步設計,旨在支持每個機架570kW的總功耗,可能用於下一代AI晶片Ruben(當前一代為Blackwell)。 鑑於高功耗,英偉達提高了電源架的電壓以降低電流,從而減輕銅線的負擔(電流越高,傳輸電力所需的銅線越多)。氮化鎵在高壓AI機架中將扮演重要角色,因其具有更高的傳輸效率、更高頻率以及更小更輕的設備優勢。該行認為,AI資料中心的功耗水平將持續上升,Meta(META.US)最近討論了其計劃運行1GW資料中心,採用1MW機架(1MW = 1,000kW,相較於英偉達當前設計的570kW)。這應使氮化鎵相較於矽基MOSFET解決方案成為越來越受青睞的技術。 富瑞指,英諾賽科進入英偉達供應鏈可能因台積電(TSM.US)關閉其氮化鎵代工廠而加速。在上述英偉達的矽供應商中,Navitas已名列其中。然而,Navitas的主要代工合作夥伴台積電將於2026年中關閉其氮化鎵代工廠,迫使Navitas轉向PSMC。這顯示了使用無晶圓廠供應商的風險。該行認為,英諾賽科的IDM(整合元件製造)地位、先進技術以及全球最大的氮化鎵代工產能可能是英偉達選擇其為合作夥伴的關鍵因素。 該行料AI伺服器氮化鎵市場總額(TAM)的初步估計為25億美元,意味著英諾賽科上周五的股價大漲僅以5倍市盈率(PE)資本化了潛在利潤。該行同意,目前量化潛力尚早,因為800VDC架構和Ruben晶片設計尚未最終確定。該行預計量產將於2027年開始。 然而,該行嘗試以當前的NV72(基於GB200)為例,粗略估計TAM,結論為僅英偉達的部分就達15億美元,若包含雲服務提供商的ASIC則為25億美元。假設英諾賽科市場份額為50%(主要競爭對手可能是英飛凌和Navitas)且淨利潤率為25%,該行估計上週五英諾賽科市值增加的15億美元僅以5倍市盈率資本化了AI伺服器的潛在利潤,這意味著長期上行潛力仍然巨大,該行亦指對如此大漲後的進一步獲利回吐不會感到意外。該行維持對英諾賽科「買入」評級及目標價54.29元。
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