OPEC+大幅增產！批準9月增產54.8萬桶/日，國際油價微跌
當地時間週日，OPEC+同意將9月的石油日產量提高54.7萬桶。
此舉標誌着該組織提前一年完成當前階段的供應恢復計劃，全面退出自2023年起八個成員國實施的220萬桶/日減產協議。
上述增產消息發佈後，市場對其初步反應平淡，國際油價雖有所下跌，但跌幅較小。
週一亞洲早盤，布倫特原油價格僅下跌0.4%，至每桶69.38美元。
在會後的一份聲明中，OPEC+表示，健康的經濟和低庫存是其做出這一決定的原因。
在週日會議後，兩位OPEC+消息人士透露，該組織將於9月7日再次舉行會議，屆時他們可能會考慮另一項約166萬桶/日的自願減產協議的保留與否，這些減產措施本來將持續到明年年底。
基本面表現較強
目前來看，儘管OPEC+已經提高產量，但油價仍維持高位。
上週五，布倫特原油價格收於每桶70美元附近，高於4月觸及的2025年低點58美元，部分原因是季節性需求上升。
Energy Aspects聯合創始人Amrita Sen指出，鑑於油價在70美元左右保持強勁，這確實讓OPEC+對市場基本面有了些信心，市場結構也表明庫存緊張。
OPEC+的產油量約佔全球石油產量的一半，多年來一直在減產以支撐油價。
今年，爲了奪回市場份額，OPEC+改變了策略，另有部分原因是美國總統特朗普呼籲其增產。
該組織從4月開始增產，每日小幅增產13.8萬桶，隨後5月、6月和7月的增產幅度超過計劃，每日增產41.1萬桶，8月增產54.8萬桶，9月增產54.7萬桶。
對此，瑞銀的Giovanni Staunovo表示：“到目前爲止，市場能夠很好地消化這些新增的石油供應，這也得益於中國的增儲活動。現在所有人的目光都將轉向特朗普本週五對俄羅斯的決定。”
前OPEC官員、Rystad Energy的Jorge Leon也表示：“OPEC+已經通過了第一道考驗。”
他指出，OPEC+已完全撤銷了其歷史上最大的減產協議，且油價並未因此暴跌。
不過，他認爲：“但接下來的任務將更加艱鉅：決定是否以及何時撤銷剩餘的166萬桶/日減產協議，同時還要應對地緣政治緊張局勢並保持凝聚力。”
RBC Capital Markets LLC的大宗商品策略主管Helima Croft分析：“今天的自願產油國會議傳遞的信息是，所有選項都擺在桌面上，包括恢復增產、暫時暫停增產，甚至扭轉近期的政策行動。”
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app！
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
