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《大行》花旗料香港穩定幣市場規模約160億美元 上下浮動80億美元視不同工具而定
花旗發表穩定幣報告,就香港今日起實施的穩定幣條例生效,估計香港穩定幣市場規模約為160億美元(約1,256億港元)(中位數),存在上行風險。該行指鑑於香港相對嚴格的監管框架,認為擁有牌照、合規實踐及穩健商業計劃的公司將在長期競爭中勝出。 該行料香港穩定幣市場規模中位數為160億美元(上下浮動80億美元,視不同工具而定)。上行風險來自貨幣總量擴張、對香港穩定幣的外部需求增加及「鏈上」活動激增。在利率方面,穩定幣可能增加對短期高質量流動資產的需求,或壓縮短期收益率,並促進本地固定收益市場的發展。該行報告中亦討論了對亞洲及新興市場財政和貨幣政策的潛在影響,以及對港幣和人民幣國際化的意義。 花旗指,值鏈中的主要上市參與者:1)上游/發行層:包括發行商、儲備托管人及合規服務提供商;2)中游/分銷層:包括交易所、資金進出通道及金融中介機構;3)下游/應用層:包括去中心化金融、支付/匯款、薪資處理及實體資產(RWA)代幣化。 該行表示,對於港元,穩定幣可以作為港元在國內和跨境交易中的額外用例。目前,港幣在跨境交易中最重要角色是國際投資者用於交易香港上市股票。如果港元穩定幣能在跨境貿易結算等領域更廣泛使用,將增加港元在國際用戶中的使用量。 若未來有離岸人民幣穩定幣,則可能成為人民幣國際化的另一基礎設施。許多市場參與者也認為穩定幣支持的支付基礎設施可作為傳統代理銀行和SWIFT基礎設施的備用方案。但正如該行近期討論的人民幣國際化,關鍵仍在於提升全球用戶的採用率。 如果穩定幣支持的跨境貿易結算能大幅降低相較於傳統銀行基礎設施的交易成本,且資金成本和外匯風險可控,穩定幣可能對企業具有吸引力。若穩定幣用例進一步擴展至代幣化投資產品,可能吸引更多投資者採用人民幣。
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