《大行》美銀證券降恆生(00011.HK)目標價至93.6元 重申「跑輸大市」
美銀證券發表研報指出,恆生銀行(00011.HK)上半年收入按年增長2.7%,達210億港元,撥備前利潤按年增長3.9%,達134億港元,超市場預期分別2%及6%。然而,淨利潤按年下降34.6%至63億港元,遜市場預期22%,因撥備增加兩倍。上半年淨資產收益率(ROE)按年下降4.5個百分點至7.9%。普通股權一級資本(CET1)比率按半年上升3.6個百分點至21.3%,部分得益於《巴塞爾協定三》規則的實施。上半年股息按年增長8.3%至每股2.6港元,派息比率按年上升30個百分點至78%。
美銀證券又表示,恆生宣布高達30億港元的回購計劃,將於六個月內完成。美銀證券將恆生2025至2027年盈利預測下調10%至18%,主要因信貸成本上升(2025至2027年預計分別為110基點、85基點、75基點),但因HIBOR下跌導致無風險利率下降,將股本成本下調50基點至8.5%。因此,美銀證券基於目標市賬率1.12倍計,將恆生目標價由原先102港元下調8%至93.6港元。由於盈利逆風及不良貸款覆蓋率低,重申恆生「跑輸大市」評級。
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