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瑞銀張寧:中國可能三季度末或末季推增量財政刺激政策 下半年政策利率或下調20至30個基點
阿思達克 07-31 16:40
中國7月政治局會議指出,上半年經濟增長穩健(按年增長5.3%),同時也強調經濟運行依然面臨不少風險挑戰,因而整體定調依然積極支持。瑞銀投資銀行高級中國經濟學家張寧表示,如瑞銀此前預期,會議未出台大規模增量刺激政策,而是強調要落實落細計劃中或已經出台的政策措施,充分釋放政策效應,這意味著未來的政策刺激將取決於經濟資料、擇機而動,而出台增量財政刺激政策的時點可能在三季度末或四季度、經濟增長動能顯著放緩後,並繼續預計下半年政策利率進一步下調20至30個基點。 對於備受關注的綜合整治「內捲式」競爭,會議繼續強調其重要性,並大致延續此前的政策基調,並未出台增量政策細則或指引。張寧認為,這表明本輪反「內捲式」競爭比上一輪供給側改革(2015至2016年)更為市場導向、複雜化和差異化。瑞銀預計政府將在未來兩至三個季度內出台自上而下的政策框架指引,進而推進綜合整治「內捲式」競爭進程;不過,瑞銀認為在未來幾個季度內可能仍不會出台大規模刺激政策。 張寧又指出,2025年二季度以來房地產活動再次走弱,不過本次會議並未出台增量的房地產支持措施,而是要求落實好中央城市工作會議精神,特別是高品質開展城市更新。瑞銀認為這表明政府沒有計劃再次進行大拆大建(類似於2015至2018年棚改),不過城市更新項目以及老舊管線改造升級有望支撐相關投資。瑞銀仍預計下半年房貸利率進一步下調,房地產去庫存進程將取得一些進展,但未來幾個季度房地產活動下行或仍將持續。 張寧表示,政府強調在擴大商品消費的同時,培育服務消費新的增長點;如果未來出台新的消費補貼支援政策,服務消費有可能也會受到支持。此外,儘管中美兩國近日已同意將加徵對等關稅暫緩期進一步延長三個月,但考慮到貿易不確定性猶存,政府繼續表態幫助受衝擊較大的外貿企業、強化融資支持。
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