《大行》花旗微升拼多多(PDD.US)目標價至154美元 料次季調整後純利縮41%
花旗發表研究報告指出,預計拼多多(PDD.US)將於8月底公布今年次季業績,又指集團首季業績令人失望後,因不確定盈利下降趨勢何時恢復正常,投資者對該集團興趣減少。花旗指出,雖然拼多多從全託管模式轉向半託管模式,將繼續影響交易服務收入增長,但相信價格上調、物流費用實施以及旗下海外電商平台Temu減少銷售與市場推廣(S&M)支出,將改善Temu在美國的盈利狀況,而Temu美國商品交易總額(GMV)放緩可能被Temu歐洲的穩健增長及巴西的積極擴張所抵消。
花旗又指出,對於拼多多國內業務,持續的商家支持計劃及以舊換新類別的「匹配」補貼,可能仍對盈利增長構成壓力。花旗預期若拼多多決定加速推廣差異化模式,2025年下半年快速商務競爭格局可能加劇。花旗對該股維持「買入」評級,並基於預測2026年每股盈利14倍計,目標價從152美元微升至154美元,較預測2025至2027年盈利複合年均增長率30%折讓約45%。
花旗又指出,拼多多近期聘任安永香港成為審計師的變動,可能暗示集團或將尋求在香港進行雙重上市或第二上市。若屬實,這可視為正面催化劑,相信這可能表明盈利拖累可能觸底。
花旗將拼多多2025至27年各年收入預測分別降3.8%、5.1%及3.8%,非公認會計準則盈利預測分別降10%、3.8%及3.8%,以反映從全託管模式轉向半託管模式的更大影響,以及國內銷售與市場推廣及營運支出增加,部分被較佳的毛利率假設抵消。對於2025年第二季度,花旗將收入、非公認會計準則淨利潤預測分別下調5.6%及17%。
花旗現預測拼多多2025年第二季度總收入按年增長7%至1,036億元人民幣(下同),略低於市場預測1,038億元,其中線上市場服務收入按年增長12%至548億元,交易服務收入按年增長2%至487億元,Temu按年下降4%至358億元(或49.3億美元)。花旗預測調整後淨利潤按年下降41%至200億元(利潤率19%),低於市場預測的222億元。
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