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《大行》招商證券國際:Alphabet(GOOGL.US)廣告業務韌性勝預期 評級「增持」
阿思達克 07-28 10:25
招商證券國際研究報告指出,Alphabet(GOOGL.US)廣告與雲服務雙輪驅動第二季業績強勁增長,超乎預期;廣告收入增速加快,AI聊天機械人競爭未帶來明顯衝擊;付費點擊量按年回升,較第一季有所改善;此外,Google Cloud營收按年增長32%,管理層指出AI功能使用強勁,並將全年資本開支指引由750億美元上調至850億美元。該行認為,因廣告業務韌性強於預期,Google Cloud(GCP)、Waymo與Youtube保持強勁勢能,予Alphabet「增持」評級。 該行提及,Alphabet第二季合併淨收入達817億美元,按年增長15%(首季按年增長13%),主要得益於廣告收入、雲服務以及訂閱收入(主要受Youtube帶動,按年增長20%)的強勁增長所推動。經營利潤為313億美元,按年增長14%,高出預期1%,帶動淨利潤亦超預期。毛利率、經營利潤率分別按年變動增加1.2、跌0.2個百分點,營業利潤率受益於規模效應和匯率,但同時受限於AI資本開支上升導致折舊費用增加的影響。自由現金流為53億美元,較之前水平大幅下滑,主因資本開支由170億美元增至220億美元。Alphabet管理層表示,折舊持續上升將繼續對經營利潤率構成壓力。Google仍堅定推進AI發展戰略,並將25年資本開支目標從750億美元上調至850億美元,其中三分之二將投入伺服器,三分之一將用於數據中心與網絡設備。招商證券國際認為,雲業務收入的強勁增長仍是其高資本支出最有力的支持。 該行認為,隨著AI戰局持續升溫,競爭對手紛紛推出AI瀏覽器,但Google生態系統仍具有穩固基礎。公司正積極在技術棧各層面參與AI競爭。鑑於Google Search仍佔全球超過90%的搜索查詢,且其活躍用戶規模已達30億,取代Google極為困難與耗時。龐大的用戶基礎與領先的AI能力是Google應對新興競爭者的最佳防線。儘管面臨貿易戰等宏觀不確定性以及AI聊天機械人的威脅,Alphabet第二季廣告收入強勁增長,付費點擊按年提升4%(首季為2%),顯示出Google廣告業務的競爭優勢較市場預期更加可持續。 考慮到廣告業務穩定、雲業務高速增長,以及Waymo與Youtube等技術資產尚未被市場充分定價,該行認為Alphabet的風險回報具備吸引力。該行預計其2024至2027財年收入和經營利潤的複合增長率分別為12%、13%。目標價維持225美元不變。
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