《大行》華泰證券估雅下項目為哈爾濱電氣(01133.HK)帶來360億人幣增量水電設備訂單 評級「買入」
華泰證券發表研究報告指,哈爾濱電氣(01133.HK)發盈喜,預計中期純利按年升95%至10.2億元人民幣。該行繼續看好哈爾濱電氣的新簽訂單兌現貢獻收入增加,及經營效率提升與費率壓降帶動業績修復。
該行表示,哈爾濱電氣正顯著受惠於可控電源裝置需求回升。隨著新增訂單陸續兌現,預計集團中期總收入達230.5億元人民幣,按年增加33.5%,當中,煤電、水力及核能設備收入料分別增71.6%、92.4%和49.6%。該行又預期,集團今年的煤電設備新增訂單將維持約180億元人民幣的高位,水力及核能設備新增訂單預計按年升14.5%和13.5%,有望進一步帶動公司收入增長。
另西藏雅下水電項目正式啟動,規劃總裝機容量超6,000萬千瓦,按水輪機中標價中位數1,200元人民幣/kW測算,雅下項目有望為公司帶來約360億元人民幣的新增水電設備訂單(假設哈電與東電各自獲得一半)。參考歷史大型水電項目招標時間線,雅下項目或將於2028-29年帶動水電設備訂單高峰,隨後逐步兌現為收入;若按五年兌現周期則可實現年均72億元人民幣的營收增量,約為公司2024年煤電營收的45%。
該行暫維持此前盈測,等待公司進一步明確指引,料集團2025至27年純利分別為21.4億、26.5億及31.1億元人民幣,按年增長26.8%、23.9%及17.3%,重申目標價10.5港元及「買入」評級。
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