《大行》中金降恆安國際(01044.HK)目標價至25.5元 下調今年盈測26%
中金髮表研究報告,預計恆安國際(01044.HK)今年上半年收入按年有所下滑,其中紙巾業務收入按年有所企穩,或有單位數增長,同時溼紙巾亦有良好表現。但衛生巾業務受315事件影響,行業整體受到較大沖擊,預估上半年收入或有低雙位數的下滑。
該行又預計,今年上半年紙漿價格仍處低位,成本端壓力可控,由於競爭仍較激烈,費用率略有提高。中金指,目前木漿供給充裕,價格處於低位且暫無加價條件,預估公司今年上半年成本端壓力偏低。分品類看,中金預估今年上半年紙巾業務毛利率或按年回正,衛生巾業務毛利率亦處於較高水平(主要因成本端利好、生產規模效應及今年上半年公司對衛生巾業務促銷力度可控),紙尿褲業務毛利率或保持平穩。
報告又指出,市場競爭環境仍較激烈,預計公司整體費用投放金額仍有增加,即費用率略有上升,但預計下半年紙巾、溼巾及紙尿褲業務收入情況有望進一步改善,衛生巾業務由於行業整體受衝擊較大,仍需觀察。
考慮到市場競爭仍較激烈且公司需要新品投放,中金下調該公司2025年淨利潤預測26%至22.9億元人民幣(下同),新引入2026年純利預測24.12億元,維持「中性」評級。考慮盈利預測調整及港股消費板塊估值有所提高,中金下調該股目標價15%至25.5港元,較當前股價有9.7%的上行空間,對應預測2025、2026年約12及11.3倍市盈率(P/E)。
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