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渣打料HIBOR第三季上升 樓價反彈言之過早
阿思達克 07-17 16:02
渣打預計,香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR)在第三季勢將上升,將3個月HIBOR於第三季底的預測由原本的3.5%下調至3%。港匯在未來三至六個月維持在弱方區間,直至銀行體系結餘降至約500億至600億元的水平。 渣打大中華及北亞區高級經濟師劉健恆預期,下半年香港樓市交投保持活躍,雖然息口會慢慢向上,但第三季底的3個月HIBOR預測水平不算高,能夠支持買賣需求。他認為,樓價反彈仍言之過早,因為發展商庫存仍然偏高,料今年餘下時間發展商賣樓仍著重成交量多於價格。 該行維持香港全年GDP增長預測2.2%,消費物價指數預測則由原本的2%下調至1.8%。 該行對中國2025年的GDP增長預測維持為4.8%。同時預計中國第四季將減息(7天期逆回購利率)10點子。至於人民幣下半年料或溫和貶值。 另外,該行料美國第三季或減息一次,幅度25點子。
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