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《大行》瑞銀料外賣戰補貼8月見頂 阿里及京東估值具吸引力
瑞銀髮表報告指,近期與消費品團隊舉辦專家電話會議,食品外賣平臺補貼大戰預計8月見頂,隨後可能轉向即時電商領域。受補貼刺激,7月美團(03690.HK)和餓了麼外賣訂單量分別激增至1億至1.2億和6,300萬,而京東(09618.HK)訂單量保持在2,000萬左右。 專家預計,到年底,美團目標保持60%的總商品成交市場份額,餓了麼30%,京東10%。與此同時,阿里(09988.HK)計劃在快速商務領域投資500億元人民幣(下同),目標使餓了麼訂單量與美團相當,達每天8,000萬,而京東預計保持審慎投資,訂單量穩定在每天1,500萬至2,000萬。 報告指,7月所有外賣平臺可能已陷入虧損。相較而言,美團在補貼效率上更具優勢,通過創新供給模式如拼好飯及自有配送員規模優勢,優化商家和用戶補貼。而其他平臺需加大對第三方配送員的投入。 瑞銀認爲,短期內電商股股價可能因競爭不確定性持續波動。美團因較高估值及潛在盈利下調風險,對其看法謹慎。相比之下,阿里在具合理執行力的情況下,不同業務協同效應帶來的價值釋放潛力更大,加且股價已回落至由DeepSeek興起所帶動的行情前水平,具備吸引力。至於京東核心業務2025年預期市盈率僅7倍,估值仍具競爭力。 餐飲行業方面,該行看好百勝中國(09987.HK)和達勢股份(01405.HK)。隨着競爭格局逐漸明朗,行業價值有望進一步顯現。
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