研報掘金丨申萬宏源研究:維持保利發展“買入”評級,銷售金額排名穩居行業第一
申萬宏源研究指出,保利發展25H1營收同比-16%、業績同比-63%,高基數下業績回落明顯。25H1銷售金額同比-16%,排名穩居行業第一,土儲結構持續優化。公司具備央企背景、資金優勢明顯,投資持續聚焦核心一二線城市。截至24年末,公司土儲計容建面6258 萬平,其中存量項目5280萬平,同比-20pct,土儲結構持續優化。公司順利完成可轉債發行,推動公司在手資金更爲充沛;同時票面利率低位,也表明投資者對可轉債含權價值的充分認可,對房地產行業止跌回穩的信心。保利發展作爲老牌央企,過去三十載中實現長期穩健的成長。此外,預計我國房地產加速出清後格局優化,集中度和盈利能力將進一步提升,優質房企有望獲更大發展空間。考慮到公司減值壓力較大、且目前利潤率仍將維持低位,維持2025-27年業績預測51.3、56.6、62.5億元,現價對應25/26PE 爲19.0/17.2倍,維持“買入”評級。
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