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天風證券: 石化“反內卷”抓手或在控產能
格隆匯 07-15 08:05
天風證券研報表示,1、2025年“反內卷”面對的石化行業環境。2015年以來到2024年,主要石化產品產能大幅增長。乙烯、MEG、PE、PP、純苯、PX、PTA、滌綸分別累計增幅達到179%、219%、131%、150%、130%、255%、130%、98%。產能自給率得到了明顯的提高。乙烯當量自給率從2020年的57%提高到2024年的76%,預計隨着未來幾年的投產浪潮會進一步上升。2、2025年“反內卷”的可能抓手。石化與化工產品細分品類多,只能抓龍頭煉油和乙烯能力。天風證券認為煉油行業面臨最大的基本面,是成品油需求達峯和衰退,客觀上需要“十五五”產能淨淘汰,而不只是新增產能控制;乙烯行業面臨的困境是,大量油轉化新產能造成過剩,以及差異化路線(煤頭、氣頭)新產能帶來過剩加劇。客觀上需要“十五五”控制新增產能、收緊項目審批,以及能耗碳排不達標的小項目淘汰。綜上,石化與煤炭不同,煤炭產能可能並沒有明顯的絕對過剩,需要控制的是開工率;石化或存在產能過剩,需要淘汰減量置換,以及控制新項目審批。
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