研報掘金丨中金:維持萬華化學“跑贏行業”評級,MDI業務盈利仍保持穩定性
中金公司研報指出,2Q聚合MDI/純MDI-純苯-煤炭價差環比僅下降8.9%/1.7%,在美國貿易關稅擾動下,萬華化學MDI業務盈利仍保持穩定性。往前看,認爲隨着公司乙烯項目原料改造、蓬萊基地和電池材料等減虧,控制投資規模且投資更重視效益等,2026年開始公司盈利有望走向增長。公司計劃未來每年投資額將控制在淨利潤+折舊攤銷金額以內,投資項目主要爲技術改造、自主研發的高附加值產品建設,以及產業鏈上下遊的股權投資等,除福建合資的聚烯烴項目外,大宗原材料方面的投資會大幅度減少。同時投資項目將由項目經理全過程負責,將更注重效益和回報率。維持目標價90元,對應59.5%的上漲空間和2025/26年21.6/16.4x市盈率,維持“跑贏行業”評級。
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