《大行》美銀證券:百勝中國(YUMC.US)下半年有望迎強勁收益 維持「買入」評級 目標價降至56.5美元
美銀證券發表研究報告指,自美國「解放日(liberation day)」以來,百勝中國(09987.HK)(YUMC.US)表現落後MSCI中國指數16%。除了資金流動外,市場目前也在重新評估其轉向小型門店和特許經營後的長期增長。美銀認為,百盛中國負面因素已反映在股價中,而線上平台近期的配送補貼可能成為短期催化劑,有望支持2025年第三季度的同店銷售增長(SSSG)表現。美銀基於今年下半年SSSG展望改善及強勁收益,對該股維持「買入」評級。
美銀認為百盛中國有多項措施支持同店銷售增長,包括百勝中國將成本節省和效率提升的收益再投資於促銷活動以吸引客流;各類聯合IP促銷的合作(如Hello Kitty、原神、體育明星等),亦有助於推動銷售;百勝中國的並排門店計劃(結合K-Coffee、K-Pro、珍珠奶茶及可能的新燒烤概念等多個模塊於一店)有助於以較低成本利用現有資產推動同店銷售增長;線上平台補貼及自助配送的強勁表現,配送業務可成為推動同店銷售增長的重要驅動力。
此外,美銀認為,百勝中國同時聚焦成本節約和效率提升,包括平台騎手(來自美團、餓了麼、達達和順豐)因成本較低且配送能力優於以往專屬騎手,預計將持續支持利潤率。此外,該公司目前正推行Mega Store計劃(由一個團隊管理多家門店),且數字化將繼續在利潤率擴張中發揮關鍵作用。
美銀基於市盈率(P/E)、現金流量折現法(DCF)及企業價值/稅息折舊及攤銷前利潤(EV/EBITDA)三者等權綜合,將美股目標價從60.5美元降至56.5美元,港股目標價由469港元降至438港元。
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