渣打上調中國第二季GDP增長預測至5.1%
渣打全球研究發表報告預計,中國第二季GDP增長5.1%,此前預測爲4.7%。
報告指,由於新訂單和生產改善,6月份官方製造業PMI回升至49.7。與此同時,第二季製造業採購經濟指數平均值按季放緩,部分反映關稅的影響。服務業和建築業PMI的平均讀數在第二季略有變動,顯示錶現平穩,並無顯着改善或下滑。該行估計第二季經季節性調整的GDP按季增長率爲0.8%,較第一季官方預估的1.2%放緩。第二季GDP年按年增長可能從第一季的5.4%放緩至5.1%。
報告指,6月份的實際活動表現可能保持穩健。季末工業生產增長可能已季節性回升。固定資產投資(FAI)的月度增長可能因房地產投資跌幅收窄而有所改善。零售業銷售額的增長可能已從5月份假期的提振及網上購物節的提早開始正常化。
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