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高盛:美聯儲或提前9月減息 料全年減三次
阿思達克 07-01 01:28
高盛最新預測,美國聯儲局或於9月起開始今年的減息,較早前預期的12月提前,原因是特朗普關稅帶來的通脹壓力較預期溫和。該行預期7月不會減息,除非就業數據大幅轉差。 高盛首席經濟學家Jan Hatzius團隊指出,9月減息的機率略高於五成,因為關稅影響未如預期明顯、通縮壓力增加,加上勞動市場或出現疲弱及波動,有可能促使聯儲局提早減息。該行認為,聯儲局可能將關稅視為一次性價格效應,並預期不會對通脹造成長期壓力。 高盛目前預期,聯儲局將在9月、10月及12月分別減息各0.25厘,並將目標利率預測由3.5%至3.75%下調至3%至3.25%。
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