植耀輝:恆指24,500點阻力不輕 中遠國際(00517.HK)繼續持有
耀才證券研究部總監植耀輝稱,中東局勢隨著以伊停火而趨向穩定。但另一邊廂,距離美國總統特朗普原定之貿易談判「死線」7月9日僅餘下不足半個月,但能成功簽署協議之國家暫時亦只得英國而已。因此如無意外,「死線」應該會再三延後。當然,與美國貿易最頻繁,達成協議之難度亦應該更高,所以中國與之談判之挑戰肯定更大,何況美國對中國貨品之依賴程度可能亦遠高於大家之想像,令情況可能更為複雜。
根據美國國際貿易委員會之資料,2024年美國有部分商品幾乎完全依靠中國進口,當中嬰兒車之比例便高達97%,雨傘及保溫瓶亦均達到96%!若以進口數量計算,則以塑家居用品最多,數目達到680億件,從中國進口比例亦達到79%,玩具數目亦達到約64億件,進口比例則約76%。不過當中最有趣可能是個別商品,原來美國從中國進口之腌製鰻魚比例達到95%,急凍鱈魚亦超過9成,就連維生素B6及B1也達到90%及88%。從相關數字可以看到,美國對中國貨品之依賴涉及「衣食住行」各個範疇,「脫鉤」本身已非易事,強加關稅所帶來之衝擊亦肯定是全方位,且看最終協議何時會有消息及公布。
至於港股走勢方面,恆指昨日(26日)雖然四連升後斷纜,不過現時亦已重上24,000點水平。若A股走勢持續有改善,則港股應可於現水平企穩並伺機向上突破。惟上文提到之關稅消息依然會左右後市以至投資氣氛,一日相關協議未有最終定案,恆指彈幅恐怕亦相當有限,相信24,500點之上阻力不輕。
最後亦不得不提愛股中遠國際(00517.HK)。此股今年表現依舊相當出色,年初至今累升37%。原先以為除淨後或會有所回調,但股價卻接連破頂,究其原因可能是與息率(現價計仍超過8.5厘)依然吸引,又或日後有望加入港股通有關。過去筆者亦已多次分析及拆解其業績表現,其基本面穩健以及100%派息比率續成賣點。筆者早前曾依照策略於5元附近略為減持,惟基於實在未能找到另一隻收息「心水」,故暫時亦只會「按兵不動」矣。
(筆者為證監會持牌人,持有中遠國際股份)~
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