《大行》大華繼顯下調乳業評級至與大市同步 首選蒙牛(02319.HK)
大華繼顯研究報告指,季初至今室溫牛奶產品的零售需求仍然疲弱,可能令乳製品公司繼續採取較保守的出貨策略,但受基數影響,料今年次季行業收入會按季改善。而原奶供需情況年初至今亦有改善,當中原奶價格有低單位數跌幅。該行料供需情況於今年第三季短暫取得平衡,零售需求將因節假日而略為改善,但不確定性依然存在,要視乎消費者需求的恢復以及上游產能調整的速度。
另外,該行預期乳製品公司提升效率,將有助支持全年的利潤率,當中蒙牛乳業(02319.HK)目標可維持穩定的經營利潤率,而伊利則目標淨利潤率有9%。報告提到,目前企業(ToB)業務對乳製品公司收入的貢獻較低,但公司認為當中有機會,可透過提供較高價值的客製化加工產品,從海外品牌中取得市場份額。
該行將乳製品行業的評級由「增持」降至「與大市同步」,行業首選為蒙牛,目標價23元,予「買入」評級,因集團專注於提高營運效率,且預期每股股息及總派息額不會少於現有水平。
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